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Friday, September 15, 2017

Tesla Rides Again (TSLA): New Highs Approaching

This post was originally published on September 14, 2017 in the Finance Trends Newsletter. Sign up to join our email list - you'll receive exclusive updates and market insights, plus the best of our website and social media content.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares, which closed at $377.64 today, are trading just below their 52-week high.

A move above $387 would mark a new all-time high for the stock. That means no overhead price resistance, only the potential for blue skies above.


Here is a monthly chart (log scale, click to enlarge) that goes back to Tesla's IPO in 2010. It shows the stock's full trading history, including the breakout move from $40 to $290 in 2013 - 2014.


Tesla TSLA stock price chart monthly Elon Musk


The weekly chart below shows Tesla's recent breakout (from a long 3-year trading range) above $300 and the run up to its highs above $386.

If TSLA can hold these gains and advance an additional 4%, the stock will be trading at a new all-time high. $387 is the magic number here.


Tesla TSLA stock chart 2017 new highs breakout Elon Musk


Tesla CEO, Elon Musk sparked excitement this week with the announcement of a Tesla semi truck unveiling scheduled for late October. This marks Tesla's entry into the commercial transportation market. Production of the electric, long-haul semis will be underway "in about two years", according to Musk.

When I last posted on TSLA in late 2016, the stock was still stagnant and stuck in a rather wide trading range between $180 and $280.

At that time, the questions surrounding TSLA dealt with the Model 3 launch and mass acceptance of Tesla's products and corporate mission.

From our October 2016 update:

"...There is no doubt that Tesla Motors is an incredibly innovative and exciting company, and the Model 3 in question is a major product.
When the Model 3 is released to buyers in late 2017 and 2018, it will mark the full realization of Tesla's mission: to build and deliver an affordable electric car that will help kickstart mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)."

Last year, the market was still undecided about Tesla's future prospects, at least in terms of a Model 3 launch acting as a catalyst to new price highs.

However, by early 2017, Tesla shares were back above $250. In April 2017, TSLA crossed $300 and reached a $50 billion market cap, surpassing Ford (F), which has been in business since 1903 (and went public in 1956).

If TSLA can make a new high above $387, it will be a short hop to $400 and above. It should be noted that TSLA is prone to sell off in quick, sharp declines (see the plunge from $370 to $306 in July 2017) so your risk management safeguards must be in place, should you decide to buy the stock.

Tesla is among the top big-cap names in my watch list right now. I have been slowly building my exposure to US stocks in recent weeks and may add a starter position in TSLA to my portfolio sometime in the next week.

Note: Educational info is presented here, all stocks and securities mentioned are used as real-world (and real-time) case studies in trading. I offer no personalized investment advice. Readers must use their own due diligence and invest according to their unique needs and objectives.


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Friday, September 01, 2017

The Most Popular Posts on Finance Trends: Readers Choice

Welcome to our new readers across the globe. Be sure to check out our popular posts section, filled with market insights and valuable lessons for traders and investors of all levels!

Great starting point for new readers and traders: a selection of our most Popular Posts on Finance Trends.

Paul Tudor Jones PTJ Trader Insights Lessons Market Wizards Finance Trends Popular Posts
Paul Tudor Jones, photo by Annie Leibovitz via Audobon.org.

You'll find a newly expanded list of some of our favorite posts, with insights into emerging market trends. Plus, lessons on trading and investing from the masters: Market Wizards such as Paul Tudor Jones, Jesse Livermore, William O'Neil, Victor Sperandeo, Charlie Munger, and Sir John Templeton offer up their hard-earned wisdom. 

Equally as important, I hope you'll use our favorite posts to learn from the trading insights offered up by myself and some of the lesser-known (but no less experienced) trading practitioners quoted within. 

I have spent years and countless hours researching stocks, scanning charts, speaking with fellow traders, and poring through libraries of information in order to distill some of these valuable lessons down to a few readable articles. Money has been made and lost - a part of every speculator's "tuition" in the markets. I hope to learn more from my own small triumphs and mistakes in the markets in order to bring you additional insights in the future.

Thanks for reading. Feel free to explore, and enjoy some of our most popular posts!

Subscribe to the Finance Trends Newsletter - you'll get actionable trading ideas and valuable market insights sent to your inbox. You can follow our real-time updates on Twitter. 

Monday, August 28, 2017

Gold Stocks Moving Up: Franco Nevada (FNV) at a New High

Gold stocks (GDX, NUGT) have been firming up and moving higher in recent days. 

This trend is especially evident if we pull up the chart of one of the world's leading gold miners, Franco Nevada (FNV). Sporting a $14.8 billion market cap, FNV is the 3rd-largest US-listed gold miner by market cap, behind $20 billion Barrick and Newmont Mining.

FNV just made a new all-time high above $81.16, the prior high from August 2016. You can see these price points on the updated chart below (the stock was just below the ATH price when I shared the FNV chart on Twitter). The stock has cleared resistance and has only "blue skies" above.

FNV Franco Nevada gold mining stock new high ATH chart


So the recent strength in gold mining stocks and utilities is reminiscent of early 2016, when these two industries were among the best-performing groups in the market.

The gold miners and utilities enjoyed a strong run through the summer of 2016, then pulled back sharply into early 2017. While utility stocks (XLU) have already gone on to make new highs, the gold miners ETF, GDX, has been treading water. In fact, GDX needs to gain more than 20% to reach its old high. 

The recent strength in FNV may be a sign that gold mining stocks are ready to turn higher.  

As my friend, Olivier Tischendorf has pointed out, Franco Nevada (FNV) is a gold stock leader that you must follow if you are trading the mining sector.

The biggest components of GDX, Barrick (ABX) and Newmont (NEM) are up around 3% today, but both stocks are trading well below their old highs. They'll have to carry some of the weight and move higher, along with FNV, in order to push the miners ETF into new high territory.

As it stands, FNV is currently outperforming the gold miners ETF and its large cap competitors. That means that Franco Nevada is the stock to own if you want to gain exposure to this new uptrend

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Tuesday, August 22, 2017

McDonald's (MCD) Trading Near All-Time Highs, Market Outperformer

McDonald's (MCD) is trading near an all-time high, even as the broader market has stumbled in recent weeks.

Quick chart update on McDonald's (MCD), a stock that was last highlighted in our "new all time highs" stock report from April 2017.

At that time, MCD was hitting new highs as the Nasdaq made a record high above the 6,000 point mark. 

Today, MCD is trading just below a new all-time high, even as the overall market has suffered through some late-summer gyrations/shakeouts and pullbacks. This is a sign of the stock's relative strength compared to the broader market. MCD is a stock to watch here.

See the performance chart below: MCD vs. SPY, QQQ.

McDonald's MCD SPY QQQ stock chart performance gains 2017
 

MCD has outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) during the August correction. The stock has moved higher from its July low, even as the indexes lost a bit of ground since late July. 

MCD (+31% YTD) has also outperformed SPY (+10% YTD), of which it is a component stock, and the tech-heavy QQQ (+21% YTD) since the year began.  

These are signs of notable strength. If you scan through your stock charts, you'll be hard pressed to find a lot of stocks holding up this well at the moment. 

Late last week, and over the weekend, I brought up the charts of every US-listed common stock trading over $5. Most of the charts, especially among big-cap retail and consumer stocks, did not look this good. MCD has outperformed the restaurants group and the major indexes.

Does this mean the stock will continue to move higher from here? We can't predict the future based on a price chart, but we can see that McDonald's remains in an uptrend and is showing continued strength since it reached a new high above $133 back in April. This is one of the stronger big cap names in the market.

If the overall market can firm up and move higher (or trade sideways) in the coming weeks, MCD could be a good candidate for a longer-term position trade. 

Note: I have no current position in MCD or the ETFs (SPY, QQQ) mentioned in this article.

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Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Snapchat Slides as Facebook Climbs: SNAP, FB in Charts

Snapchat parent Snap Inc's stock (SNAP) is sliding after a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. The stock is set to close -9% on the day.


Snap Snapchat Stock Price Chart Downtrend


As the updated price chart shows (see annotations), SNAP has been suffering since its first quarterly earnings report back in May 2017

Since then, the downtrend has accelerated. After a brief rebound above $21, SNAP has continued to trade at new lows. Today's gap down put the stock well below its IPO price of $17.

From Fortune: "Snapchat's Biggest Underwriter Says It Was 'Wrong' About SNAP Stock"


"...Morgan Stanley's downgrade is a particularly hard hit for the company as the bank was an underwriter for Snap's IPO, guiding the company through the process. Typically, such underwriters become cheerleaders of the company after it officially goes public, authoring "buy" or "hold" recommendations. And Morgan Stanley was no exception.

Following Snap's IPO, Morgan Stanley gave Snap (snap, -8.65%) the equivalent of a "buy" rating and a 12-month target price of $28—one of the most bullish on Wall Street at the time.

But now, the bank has lowered its price target by 43% to $16 a share. That's well below Snap's IPO price."

Never a good sign when your own underwriter throws you under the bus, after profiting on the deal...

Meanwhile, Facebook (FB) shares are trading just below their recent 52-week high and look poised to break out to new all-time highs. 

Facebook FB Stock Price Chart


Facebook has been keeping Snap at bay with Instagram, its highly popular photo sharing service and social network. Instagram grew to 700 million users in 2017, and its newly-created Snap competitor, Instagram Stories, currently boasts 250 million active users. 

After slogging through a rough post-IPO year of its own back in 2012, FB rocketed higher in July 2013 after an impressive earnings report. Facebook shares have climbed steadily higher since then, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (see chart below) and social media competitors such as TWTR and SNAP.

Facebook FB Nasdaq QQQ ETF Stocks Chart


Facebook (FB) is up 425% since its 2012 IPO week, while the QQQ is up 125% over the same period. So far, FB remains the undisputed stock leader in its space.

Related posts:

Facebook (FB) at New All-Time High as Twitter (TWTR) Sinks.

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Saturday, June 03, 2017

My Trading Journey: The Globe and Mail Interview

Welcome, new readers! Signup for our free email updates at the Finance Trends Newsletter.

The Globe and Mail interviewed me about my trading process and recent trades for their weekend investing column, "Me and My Money". It was a pleasure to be highlighted (thanks again to columnist Larry MacDonald)

You'll find some background on my trading philosophy and an update on some of my personal investments and recent trades. Plus, a few words of advice to investors and new traders on controlling your risk, informed by my own experiences and setbacks in trading.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/investors-trades-guided-by-market-psychology-and-trends/article35193164/?service=print

Since newspaper columns must be edited for space, some crucial details regarding my recent trades (along with ticker symbols) and investing history were left out.  

Next week, I'll publish an interview transcript that will offer a fuller, more detailed view of my written responses. Email subscribers will get a first look at this exclusive content.

Thank you for reading and for sharing your feedback and comments on social media!

Saturday, May 27, 2017

Step Out of Your Investing Comfort Zone: Buying High-Priced Stocks

The latest edition of the Finance Trends Newsletter was sent out to subscribers on Thursday. If you would like to join our free email list and receive new updates, please subscribe via the title link.

 Finance Trends Newsletter

Our latest email report, "Going Outside Your Investing Comfort Zone" provides a brief update to this week's Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) post. Namely, the question of how to step up to the plate and buy such high-priced stocks as they cross the $100, $200, or even the rarefied $1,000 per share mark.

Here is an excerpt from our latest email update: 

"...Now, I am slowly retraining myself to act on my analysis, even when it comes to buying very "high-priced" shares such as AMZN, PCLN, etc. As I remind myself lately, you don't need to take on a very large position, just buy a few shares and participate in the uptrend..." 

"...While writing today's update, I had a chance to look back on a prior AMZN post and a big missed opportunity in the stock.

What could I do to remedy this lack of follow-through in the future?

Confronting my past inhibitions, I decided to take action and buy another "high-priced" stock. One that has popped up in my chart scans and is trading well north of $100 per share..."

You can read the full story and learn how I've started to move outside of my "investing comfort zone". You may be inspired to take action and redefine your own investing boundaries!

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) near the $1,000 mark

Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) are set to join the $1000 per share club. 

Amazon AMZN GOOGL $1000 stock price chart

Google stock chart GOOGL $1000


We last spoke of AMZN and GOOGL in our late April roundup of leading tech stocks making new highs

You can also check our 2013 post, "Amazon: Long-Term AMZN Charts and Thoughts", and revisit a time earlier in this bull market when the stock was trading near $350 a share. 

One of my great errors of omission (failure to act) was in not purchasing AMZN shares after writing this post. The share price continued to climb steadily (in fact, it has since tripled), confirming all the basic factors (retail dominance, AWS growth) laid out at that time. 

Now, I am slowly retraining myself to act on my analysis, even when it comes to buying very "high-priced" shares such as AMZN, PCLN, etc. As I remind myself lately, you don't need to take on a very large position, just buy a few shares and participate in the uptrend.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Nasdaq 6,000: Tech Leaders (GOOG, FB, NFLX, AMZN) at New All-Time Highs

The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQX, IXIC) topped 6,000 today, a record high for the tech-heavy index. 

Here is an updated monthly chart (click below) of the Nasdaq from 1999 - 2017. You'll note that the prior dot com bubble peak of 5,132 in March 2000 was not topped until mid-2015. With this latest surge, the Nasdaq jumped over the 6k mark for the first time ever.

Nasdaq Composite Nasdaq 6000 6k stocks tech chart


Joining the Nasdaq at new all-time highs are many of the most actively traded US tech stocks. 

Leading tech names such as Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) are trading at, or very near, their all-time highs. See the Finviz charts below.



Also joining the new highs parade are Tesla (TSLA), a tech company in the guise of a car manufacturer, payments processor Square (SQ), Pepsi (PEP), and omnipresent burger joint, McDonald's (MCD). 

So we are seeing a bullish resumption of the upward trend in US stocks. The new highs in leading tech stocks and even some big cap consumer names, like McDonald's and Pepsi, are supportive of a healthy, broader uptrend in the stock market. 

While many stocks are still languishing well below their highs or are busy playing catch up, these latest moves higher in tech and chip stocks are a positive sign for the market going forward.

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Thursday, April 06, 2017

NVIDIA (NVDA) Topping? Stock Chart Review

NVIDIA (NVDA) shares have struggled to regain their former highs above $120. Has this new tech leader topped out or is the stock merely catching its breath and consolidating? 

NVDA is currently trading around $100 after falling back below its 50 day moving average. The stock is currently down -6% YTD.

NVIDIA stock NVDA price chart technical analysis


As you'll note from the chart annotations (click chart to enlarge), this is the second time the stock has dipped below the 50 day MA since topping out in early February. 

The stock made a short-term top at the end of 2016, with a bearish engulfing bar (the long red bar/candle on December 28, 2016). This down day marked the start of a brief decline, after which NVDA climbed back to challenge its former high. The stock failed to hold above the $120 level and quickly dropped back below its key moving averages.

I should note that NVDA pulled back sharply below its 20 and 50 day MAs back in early 2016. The stock soon bounced back and went on to make multi-year highs as it ran from $33 to $120, a nearly four-fold gain in one year.

The question is, do we see signs of a renewed uptrend coming on the heels of the advance we've just witnessed? With NVDA currently sporting a $59 billion market cap and fellow chip leaders like AMD and QCOM struggling lately, I will tread lightly here.  

Until I see renewed buying strength and a resumption of the upward trend, I will avoid buying the stock outright. NVDA is either in the process of consolidating or entering a decline. Until I get more information, I will focus on stocks with higher potential for upside.

While I don't own NVDA as an individual stock, I do own the shares indirectly via the semiconductor ETF, SMH. So while I'm realistic and cautious about a potential decline in NVDA, I'll be happy to see the stock firm up and move higher in the coming weeks. If the trend moves against me, I have a predetermined sell order (stop loss) in place for SMH.

Related posts

Chip Stock Rally Broadens: NVDA, AMD, BRKS, SMH Charts.

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